Science Innovation

| Peer-Reviewed |

Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making

Received: May 09, 2022    Accepted: Jun. 06, 2022    Published: Jun. 09, 2022
Views:       Downloads:

Share This Article

Abstract

The anchoring effect, as a typical cognitive bias, has been widely used in judgment and decision making research in different fields, and as the anchoring effect has been verified in many fields, more and more attention has been paid to the methods and approaches to reduce the anchoring effect. As the basis and core of military decision making to achieve certain military goals and missions, correct and reasonable military decision making is the key to the success of military operations. In order to effectively reduce or even avoid the cognitive bias caused by the anchoring effect on commanders and improve the correctness and rationality of military decisions, this paper systematically analyzes the theoretical explanations of the anchoring effect in different periods, summarizes the psychological mechanism of the anchoring effect, and on this basis gives several typical examples of battles at home and abroad in which the anchoring effect affected the correct decisions of commanders and eventually led to the failure of military operations. The harm of anchoring effect in military command decision making is analyzed in conjunction with the CECA decision model, and the paper proposes effective strategies to cope with anchoring effect in military decision making, which can serve as useful references for military decision makers at different levels.

DOI 10.11648/j.si.20221003.17
Published in Science Innovation ( Volume 10, Issue 3, June 2022 )
Page(s) 90-95
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Anchoring Effect, Military Decision Making, Cognitive Bias, Coping Strategies

References
[1] Epley N. & Gilovich T. Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Differential processing of self-generated and experimenter-provided anchors [J]. Psychological Science, 2001, 12 (5): 391-396.
[2] Slovic P. The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble [J]. Psychonomic Science, 1967 (9): 223-224.
[3] Tversky A. & Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases [J]. Science, New Series, 1974 (185): 1124-1131.
[4] Daniel Kahneman.思考,快与慢[M].胡晓姣 李爱民 何梦莹,译.北京:中信出版社, 2012: 101-110。
[5] Simon H. A. A behavioral model of rational choice[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1955, LXIX (2): 99-118.
[6] Simon H. A. Models of bounded rationality [M]. Cambridge. MA: MIT Press, 1982.
[7] Gigerenzer G, Todd P, Groupe A.Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart [M]. New York, NY: Oxford University Press., 1999: 40-55.
[8] Stanovich K. E.& West R. F. Reasoning independently of prior belief and individual differences in actively open-minded thinking [J]. Journal of Educational Psychology, 1997, (89): 342-357.
[9] Sloman S. A. The empirical case for two systems of reasoning [J]. Psychological Bulletin, 2002, (128): 978-996.
[10] Stanovich K. E.& West R. F. Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate [J]. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 2000, (23): 645-726.
[11] Evans J. St. B. T. Logical and human reasoning: An assessment of the deductive paradigm [J]. Psychological Bulletin, 2002, (128): 978-996
[12] Evans J. St. B. T. In two minds: Dual-process account of reasoning [J]. Trends inCognitive Sciences, 2003, (7): 454-459.
[13] Amsel E., Close J., Sadler E.& Klaczynski P.A. College students' awareness of irrational judgments on gambling tasks: a dual-process account [J]. The Journal of Psychology, 2009, 143 (3): 293-317.
[14] Darlow A L, Sloman S A. Two systems of reasoning: architecture and relation to emotion [J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Cognitive Science, 2010, 1 (3): 382-392.
[15] 孙彦,李纾,殷晓莉.决策与推理的双系统--启发式系统和分析系统[J].心理科学进展, 2007, 15 (5): 721-726。
[16] Epley N. & Gilovich T. The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, Why the adjustments are insufficient [J]. Psychology Science, 2006, 17 (4): 311-318.
[17] 苗丹民,严进,冯正直,刘旭峰编.军事心理学[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社, 2020: 252-253。
[18] Ancker C. J. & Flynn M. Field Manual 5 - 0: Exercising command and control in an era of persistent conflict [J]. Military Review, 2010, March-April: 13-19.
[19] 全国政协文化史和学习委员会.辽沈战役(原国民党高级将领的战场记忆)[M].北京:中国文史出版社,2019:63。
[20] 钟占兴,沈兆璜.东北军区暨东北野战军组织沿革[J].军事历史, 1994 (2): 47-51。
[21] 全国政协文化史和学习委员会.辽沈战役(原国民党高级将领的战场记忆)[M].北京:中国文史出版社, 2019: 66。
[22] 中国大百科全书编写组.中国军事百科全书[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社, 1997: 34-35。
[23] 俞天任.日本帝国海军兴亡史:浩瀚大洋是赌场[M].北京:语文出版社, 2010。
[24] 潘剑剑主编.海洋10000个为什么;古今海战知多少[M].北京:中国时代经济出版社, 2011: 200。
[25] 邢群麒主编.世界历史全知道(下)[M].南京:江苏美术出版社, 2014: 514。
[26] 中国军事百科全书编审室.中国大百科全书•军事[M].北京:中国大百科出版社, 2007。
[27] 张召忠.心理战问题研究与思考[J].外军信息战, 2006 (1): 4。
[28] S.Plous.决策与判断[M].施俊琦,王星,译.北京:人民邮电出版社, 2004: 128-135。
[29] Staw B M. Knee-deep in the big muddty: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action [J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1976, 16 (1): 27-44.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Li Shifei, Wu Chenpeng, Ouyang Yan, Liu Zhen. (2022). Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making. Science Innovation, 10(3), 90-95. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20221003.17

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Li Shifei; Wu Chenpeng; Ouyang Yan; Liu Zhen. Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making. Sci. Innov. 2022, 10(3), 90-95. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20221003.17

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Li Shifei, Wu Chenpeng, Ouyang Yan, Liu Zhen. Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making. Sci Innov. 2022;10(3):90-95. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20221003.17

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.si.20221003.17,
      author = {Li Shifei and Wu Chenpeng and Ouyang Yan and Liu Zhen},
      title = {Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making},
      journal = {Science Innovation},
      volume = {10},
      number = {3},
      pages = {90-95},
      doi = {10.11648/j.si.20221003.17},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20221003.17},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.si.20221003.17},
      abstract = {The anchoring effect, as a typical cognitive bias, has been widely used in judgment and decision making research in different fields, and as the anchoring effect has been verified in many fields, more and more attention has been paid to the methods and approaches to reduce the anchoring effect. As the basis and core of military decision making to achieve certain military goals and missions, correct and reasonable military decision making is the key to the success of military operations. In order to effectively reduce or even avoid the cognitive bias caused by the anchoring effect on commanders and improve the correctness and rationality of military decisions, this paper systematically analyzes the theoretical explanations of the anchoring effect in different periods, summarizes the psychological mechanism of the anchoring effect, and on this basis gives several typical examples of battles at home and abroad in which the anchoring effect affected the correct decisions of commanders and eventually led to the failure of military operations. The harm of anchoring effect in military command decision making is analyzed in conjunction with the CECA decision model, and the paper proposes effective strategies to cope with anchoring effect in military decision making, which can serve as useful references for military decision makers at different levels.},
     year = {2022}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Application of the Anchoring Effect in Military Decision Making
    AU  - Li Shifei
    AU  - Wu Chenpeng
    AU  - Ouyang Yan
    AU  - Liu Zhen
    Y1  - 2022/06/09
    PY  - 2022
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20221003.17
    DO  - 10.11648/j.si.20221003.17
    T2  - Science Innovation
    JF  - Science Innovation
    JO  - Science Innovation
    SP  - 90
    EP  - 95
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2328-787X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20221003.17
    AB  - The anchoring effect, as a typical cognitive bias, has been widely used in judgment and decision making research in different fields, and as the anchoring effect has been verified in many fields, more and more attention has been paid to the methods and approaches to reduce the anchoring effect. As the basis and core of military decision making to achieve certain military goals and missions, correct and reasonable military decision making is the key to the success of military operations. In order to effectively reduce or even avoid the cognitive bias caused by the anchoring effect on commanders and improve the correctness and rationality of military decisions, this paper systematically analyzes the theoretical explanations of the anchoring effect in different periods, summarizes the psychological mechanism of the anchoring effect, and on this basis gives several typical examples of battles at home and abroad in which the anchoring effect affected the correct decisions of commanders and eventually led to the failure of military operations. The harm of anchoring effect in military command decision making is analyzed in conjunction with the CECA decision model, and the paper proposes effective strategies to cope with anchoring effect in military decision making, which can serve as useful references for military decision makers at different levels.
    VL  - 10
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Early Warning Technology, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan, China

  • Forth Groups of Students, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan, China

  • Department of Space Early Warning, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan, China

  • Department of Early Warning Technology, Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan, China

  • Section