International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

| Peer-Reviewed |

Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics

Received: May 26, 2022    Accepted: Jun. 17, 2022    Published: Jun. 27, 2022
Views:       Downloads:

Share This Article

Abstract

Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.

DOI 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
Published in International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences ( Volume 6, Issue 1, June 2022 )
Page(s) 13-34
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Degassing, Fractionation, Isotope, Outgassing, Productivity

References
[1] IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by T. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
[2] Fung, I., John, J., Lerner, J. et al (1991) Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96, 13033-13065. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JD01247
[3] Dlugokencky, E. J., Steele, L., Lang, P. M. et al (1994) The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric methane. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 99, 17021-17043. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD01245
[4] He, Z., Zeng, Z. C., Lei, L. P. et al (2017) A data-driven assessment of biosphere-atmosphere interaction impact on seasonal cycle patterns of XCO2 Using GOSAT and MODIS observations. Remote Sensing, 9, 251. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9030251
[5] Saunois, M., Stavert, A., Poulter, B. et al (2020) The Global Methane Budget 2000­2017. Earth System Science Data, 12, 1561­1623. https://doi.org/10.5194/ESSD-12-1561-2020
[6] Hambler, C. & Henderson, P. A. (2020) Sea ice and carbon dioxide. Working Paper, version 2. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:640a0c7e-6b55-4aff-a9cc-f47f6b490254
[7] Hambler, C. & Henderson, P. A. (2020) Sea ice and methane. Working paper, version 2. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:52b0e80f-7358-4b88-8941-55068738638e
[8] Heimann, M., Keeling, C. D. & Tucker, C. J. (1989) A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 3. Seasonal cycle and synoptic time scale variations. Aspects of climate variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophysical Monograph, 55, 277-303. https://doi.org/10.1029/GM055p0277
[9] Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. B., Carter, A. et al (1989) A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 4. Mean annual gradients and interannual variations. Aspects of climate variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophysical Monograph, 55, 305-363. https://doi.org/10.1029/GM055p0305
[10] Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Bacastow, R. B. et al (2001) Exchanges of atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000. In: Exchanges of atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000. I. Global aspects, SIO Reference Series, No. 01-06, pp. 1-88. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego.
[11] Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Bacastow, R. B. et al (2005) Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: observations and carbon cycle implications. In: A history of atmospheric CO2 and its effects on plants, animals, and ecosystems. Ecological Studies (Analysis and Synthesis) (ed. by I. Baldwin et al), 177, pp. 83-133. Springer, New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-27048-5_5
[12] Buermann, W., Lintner, B. R., Koven, C. D. et al (2007) The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 4249-4254. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0611224104
[13] Keeling, R. F. (2008) Recording Earth's vital signs. Science, 319, 1771-1772. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1156761
[14] Jiang, X. & Yung, Y. L. (2019) Global patterns of carbon dioxide variability from satellite observations. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 47, 225-245. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060447
[15] Nelson, M. D. & Nelson, D. B. (2016) Oceans, ice & snow and CO2 rise, swing and seasonal fluctuation. International Journal of Geosciences, 7, 1232-1282. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2016.710092
[16] Salby, M. & Harde, H. (2022) Control of atmospheric CO2. Part II: Influence of tropical warming. Science of Climate Change, 1, N2 1-29. https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202112/211
[17] Kort, E. A., Wofsy, S. C., Daube, B. C. et al (2012) Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82 degrees north. Nature Geoscience, 5, 318-321. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1452
[18] Zhao, F., Zeng, N., Asrar, G. et al (2016) Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis. Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016
[19] Resplandy, L., Keeling, R. F., Rödenbeck, C. et al (2018) Revision of global carbon fluxes based on a reassessment of oceanic and riverine carbon transport. Nature Geoscience, 11, 504-509. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0151-3
[20] Palmer, P. I., Feng, L, Baker, D. et al (2019) Net carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal. Nature Communications 10, Article number: 3344 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11097-w
[21] Weber, T., Wiseman, N. A. & Kock, A. (2019) Global ocean methane emissions dominated by shallow coastal waters. Nature Communications, 10, 4584. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12541-7
[22] Winkler, A. J., Myneni, R. B., Alexandrov, G. A. et al (2019) Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes. Nature Communications, 10, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08633-z
[23] Green, J. K., Berry, J, Ciais, P. et al (2020) Amazon rainforest photosynthesis increases in response to atmospheric dryness. Science Advances 6, No 47. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abb7232
[24] Copernicus (2019) https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/new-high-quality-cams-maps-carbon-dioxide-surface-fluxes-obtained-satellite-observations.
[25] Harris, N. L., Gibbs, D. A., Baccini, A. et al (2021) Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes. Nature Climate Change, 11, 234–240. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00976-6
[26] Serov, P, Mattingsdal, R., Winsborrow, M. et al (2022) Widespread natural methane and oil leakage from sub-marine Arctic reservoirs. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1225012/v1
[27] Vancoppenolle, M. & Tedesco, L. (2016) Numerical models of sea ice biogeochemistry. In: Sea ice, 3rd edn. (ed. by D. N. Thomas), pp. 492-515. Wiley, New Jersey. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118778371.ch20
[28] Geilfus, N.-X., Pind, M. L., Else, B. G. T. et al (2018) Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011. Continental Shelf Research, 156, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2018.01.006
[29] Bushinsky, S. M., Landschützer, P., Rödenbeck, C. et al (2019) Reassessing Southern Ocean air sea CO2 flux estimates with the addition of biogeochemical float observations. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33, 1370-1388. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006176
[30] MOSAiC (2019) The key to the Arctic puzzle. From https://www.mosaic-expedition.org/science/arctic-climate/. Accessed 29 October 2019.
[31] Hein, R., Crutzen, P. J. & Heimann, M. (1997) An inverse modelling approach to investigate the global atmospheric methane cycle. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11, 43-76. https://doi.org/10.1029/96GB03043
[32] Beer, C., Reichstein, M., Tomelleri, E. et al (2010) Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate. Science, 329, 834-838. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984
[33] Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, N. et al (2015) Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Biogeosciences, 12, 653-679. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015
[34] Park, J. (2009) A re-evaluation of the coherence between global-average atmospheric CO2 and temperatures at interannual time scales. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L22704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040975
[35] IPCC (in press) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed by V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani et al), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
[36] Salby, M. & Harde, H. (2021) Control of atmospheric CO2. Part I: Relation of Carbon 14 to the removal of CO2. Science of Climate Change, 1, N1 1-36. https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202112/210
[37] Damm, E., Rudels, B., Schauer, U. et al (2015) Methane excess in Arctic surface water - triggered by sea ice formation and melting. Scientific Reports, 5, 16179. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16179
[38] Niles, P. B., Socki, R. A. & Hredzak, P. L. (2007) A new method for evaluating the carbon isotope characteristics of carbonate formed under cryogenic conditions analogous to Mars. Lunar and Planetary Science, XXXVIII.
[39] Salby, M. (2012) Physics of the atmosphere and climate, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139005265
[40] Dlugokencky, E. J., Mund, J. W., Crotwell, A. M. et al (2020) Atmospheric carbon dioxide dry air mole fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1968-2019, Version: 2020-07. https://doi. org/10. 15138/wkgj-f215. Accessed 1 August 2020.
[41] Dlugokencky, E. J., Crotwell, A. M., Mund, J. W. et al (2020) Atmospheric methane dry air mole fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1983-2019, Version: 2020-07, https://doi.org/10.15138/VNCZ-M766. Accessed 1 August 2020.
[42] Dlugokencky, E. (2021) Ed Dlugokencky, NOAA/GML (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/). Accessed 1 January 2021.
[43] White, J. W. C., Vaughn B. H. & Michel, S. E. (2015) University of Colorado, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Stable Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (13C and 18O) from the NOAA ESRL Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1990-2014, Version: 2015-10-26, Path: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/data/trace_gases/co2c13/flask/
[44] Fetterer, F., Knowles, K., Meier, W. N. et al (2017) Updated daily. Sea Ice Index, Version 3. monthly North and South. Boulder, Colorado USA. NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center. https://doi.org/10.7265/N5K072F8. Accessed 26 February 2020.
[45] Spencer, R., Christy, J. & Braswell, W. (2015) Version 6. 0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0. 11 C/decade. https://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/.
[46] Ravishankara, A. R. & Albritton, D. L. (1995) Methyl chloroform and the atmosphere. Science, 269, 183-184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5221.183
[47] Reidel, K. & Lassey, K. (2008) "Detergent of the atmosphere". Water & Atmosphere, 16, 22-23.
[48] Henderson, P. A. (2021) Southwood's Ecological Methods. 5th Edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198862277.001.0001
[49] Jackowicz-Korczyński, M., Christensen, T. R., Bäckstrand, K. et al (2010) Annual cycle of methane emission from a subarctic peatland. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 115, G02009. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000913
[50] Wiesenburg, D. A. & Guinasso Jr, N. L. (1979) Equilibrium solubilities of methane, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen in water and sea water. Journal of Chemical and Engineering Data, 24, 356-360. https://doi.org/10.1021/je60083a006
[51] Vancoppenolle, M., Meiners, K. M., Michel, C. et al (2013) Role of sea ice in global biogeochemical cycles: emerging views and challenges. Quaternary Science Reviews, 79, 207-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.04.011
[52] Ishii, M., Inoue, H. Y. & Matsueda, H. (2002) Net community production in the marginal ice zone and its importance for the variability of the oceanic pCO2 in the Southern Ocean south of Australia. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 49, 1691-1706. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00007-3
[53] Semiletov, I. P., Pipko, I. I., Repina, I. et al (2007) Carbonate chemistry dynamics and carbon dioxide fluxes across the atmosphere–ice–water interfaces in the Arctic Ocean: Pacific sector of the Arctic. Journal of Marine Systems, 66, 204-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.05.012
[54] Bakker, D., Hoppema, M., Schröder, M. et al (2008) A rapid transition from ice covered CO2-rich waters to a biologically mediated CO2 sink in the eastern Weddell Gyre. Biosciences, 5, 1373-1386. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1373-2008
[55] Nomura, D., Eicken, H., Gradinger, R. et al (2010) Rapid physically driven inversion of the air–sea ice CO2 flux in the seasonal landfast ice off Barrow, Alaska after onset of surface melt. Continental Shelf Research, 30, 1998-2004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.09.014
[56] Nomura, D., Granskog, M. A., Assmy, P. et al (2013) Arctic and Antarctic sea ice acts as a sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 6511-6524. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009048
[57] Nomura, D., Yoshikawa-Inoue, H., Kobayashi, S. et al (2014) Winter-to-summer evolution of pCO2 in surface water and air–sea CO2 flux in the seasonal ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Biogeosciences, 11, 5749-5761. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5749-2014
[58] Nomura, D., Granskog, M. A., Fransson, A. et al (2018) CO2 flux over young and snow-covered Arctic pack ice in winter and spring. Biogeosciences, 15, 3331-3343. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3331-2018
[59] Sejr, M. K., Krause-Jensen, D., Rysgaard, S. et al (2011) Air-sea flux of CO2 in Arctic coastal waters influenced by glacial melt water and sea ice. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 63, 815-822. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00540.x
[60] Fransson, A., Chierici, M., Yager, P. L. et al (2011) Antarctic sea ice carbon dioxide system and controls. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 116, C12035. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006844
[61] Fransson, A., Chierici, M., Skjelvan, I. et al (2017) Effects of sea-ice and biogeochemical processes and storms on under-ice water fCO2 during the winter-spring transition in the high Arctic Ocean: Implications for sea-air CO2 fluxes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122, 5566-5587. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012478
[62] Shadwick, E. H., Thomas, H., Chierici, M. et al (2011) Seasonal variability of the inorganic carbon system in the Amundsen Gulf region of the southeastern Beaufort Sea. Limnology and Oceanography, 56, 303-322. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2011.56.1.0303
[63] Geilfus, N.-X., Carnat, G., Dieckmann, G. S. et al (2013) First estimates of the contribution of CaCO3 precipitation to the release of CO2 to the atmosphere during young sea ice growth. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 244-255. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC007980
[64] Geilfus, N.-X., Tison, J. -L., Ackley, S. et al (2014) Sea ice pCO2 dynamics and air–ice CO2 fluxes during the Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) experiment–Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica. Cryosphere, 8, 2395-2407. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2395-2014
[65] Geilfus, N.-X., Galley, R. J., Crabeck, O. et al (2015) Inorganic carbon dynamics of melt-pond-covered first-year sea ice in the Canadian Arctic. Biogeosciences, 12, 2047-2061. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2047-2015
[66] Roden, N. P., Tilbrook, B., Trull, T. W. et al (2016) Carbon cycling dynamics in the seasonal sea ice zone of East Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121, 8749-8769. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012008
[67] Brown, K. A., Miller, L. A., Mundy, C. J. et al (2015) Inorganic carbon system dynamics in landfast Arctic sea ice during the early-melt period. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120, 3542-3566. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010620
[68] Butterworth, B. J. & Miller, S. D. (2016) Air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 7223-7230. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069581
[69] Prytherch, J., Brooks, I. M., Crill, P. M. et al (2017) Direct determination of the air-sea CO2 gas transfer velocity in Arctic sea ice regions. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 3770-3778. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073593
[70] Tison, J.-L., Delille, B. & Papadimitriou, S. (2016) Gases in sea ice. In: Sea ice, 3rd edn. (ed. by D. N. Thomas), pp. 433-471. Wiley, New Jersey. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118778371.ch18
[71] Gray, A. R., Johnson, K. S., Bushinsky, S. M. et al (2018) Autonomous biogeochemical floats detect significant carbon dioxide outgassing in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9049-9057. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078013
[72] Søgaard, D. H., Deming, J. W., Meire, L. et al (2019) Effects of microbial processes and CaCO3 dynamics on inorganic carbon cycling in snow-covered Arctic winter sea ice. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 611, 31-44. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12868
[73] Ouyang, Z., Qi, D., Chen, L. et al. (2020) Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean, Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0784-2
[74] Welp, L. R., Patra, P. K., Rödenbeck, C. et al (2016) Increasing summer net CO2 uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16, 9047-9066. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9047-2016
[75] Qin, Y., Xiao, X., Wigneron, J.-P. et al (2021) Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Nature Climate Change 11, 442-48. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01026-5
[76] UNESCO, WRI, IUCN (2021) World Heritage forests: Carbon sinks under pressure. UNESCO, Paris.
[77] Mearns, E. (2015) CO2 - The view from space - update. http://euanmearns.com/co2-the-view-from-space-update/ Accessed 24 April 2021.
[78] Mastepanov, M., Sigsgaard, C., Dlugokencky, E. J. et al (2008) Large tundra methane burst during onset of freezing. Nature, 456, 628–630. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07464
[79] Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G. et al (2013) Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by T. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner et al), pp. 465-570. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
[80] Humlum, O., Stordahl, K. & Solheim, J.-E. (2013) The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 51-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008
[81] Salby, M. (2013) Presentation Prof. Murry Salby in Hamburg on 18 April 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20150827075724/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ROw_cDKwc0&feature=youtu.be. Accessed 14 June 2022.
[82] Rentsch, C. (2021) https://twitter.com/crentsch/status/1358122750259441666
[83] Rentsch, C. (2021) Radiative forcing by CO2 observed at top of atmosphere from 2002-2019. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1911.10605
[84] Granger, C. W. J. (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
[85] Stips, A., Macias, D., Coughlan, C. et al (2016) On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature. Scientific Reports, 6, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep21691
[86] Faes, L., Nollo, G., Stramaglia, S. et al (2017) Multiscale Granger causality. Physical Review E, 96, 042150. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042150
[87] Koutsoyiannis, D, Onof, C., Christofidis, A. et al (2022) Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 478, 20210836. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0836
[88] Hambler, C. & Canney, S. M. (2013) Conservation. 2nd Edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511792472
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Clive Hambler, Peter Alan Henderson. (2022). Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 6(1), 13-34. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Clive Hambler; Peter Alan Henderson. Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. Int. J. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 2022, 6(1), 13-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Clive Hambler, Peter Alan Henderson. Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. Int J Atmos Oceanic Sci. 2022;6(1):13-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13,
      author = {Clive Hambler and Peter Alan Henderson},
      title = {Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics},
      journal = {International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences},
      volume = {6},
      number = {1},
      pages = {13-34},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      abstract = {Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.},
     year = {2022}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics
    AU  - Clive Hambler
    AU  - Peter Alan Henderson
    Y1  - 2022/06/27
    PY  - 2022
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    T2  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
    JF  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
    JO  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
    SP  - 13
    EP  - 34
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2640-1150
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    AB  - Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

  • Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Pisces Conservation Ltd, Everton, United Kingdom

  • Section