Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: 
A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis

Nafia Muntakim; Md. Imran Hossain; Zihad Ahmed; Md. Mizanoor Rahman

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

Research Article |

| Peer-Reviewed

Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis

Nafia Muntakim

, Md. Imran Hossain

, Zihad Ahmed

, Md. Mizanoor Rahman^*

Published in American Journal of Remote Sensing (Volume 14, Issue 2)

Received: 31 August 2026 Accepted: 10 September 2026 Published: 28 September 2026

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Abstract

Understanding how rainfall variability regulates land-surface thermal conditions is essential for climate-sensitive regions where water availability, vegetation dynamics, and heat stress interact. However, the temporal persistence and spatial heterogeneity of rainfall–surface temperature relationships remain insufficiently characterized in northwestern Bangladesh. This study integrates 25 years (2001–2025) of multi-source Earth observation data, including Terra MODIS land-surface temperature (MOD11A2), MODIS vegetation index (MOD13A2), and CHIRPS precipitation, to quantify pre-monsoon hydrothermal coupling across 16 districts of the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. A total of 275 quality-controlled 8-day March–May composites were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimation, fixed-effects distributed lag models, and a locally standardized compound dry-hot persistence indicator. Mean daytime land-surface temperature ranged from 27.93°C in Kurigram to 31.38°C in Chapai Nawabganj. No district exhibited a significant daytime land-surface temperature trend after false-discovery-rate correction, whereas NDVI increased significantly across all districts. The distributed-lag model showed that 10 mm of concurrent rainfall was associated with a 0.164°C lower daytime land-surface temperature (95% CI: −0.224 to −0.103°C), while rainfall during the preceding 8–16 days was associated with a weaker effect (−0.093°C per 10 mm). The 16–24-day rainfall effect was not significant. Rainfall sensitivity varied considerably among districts, ranging from −0.538°C per 10 mm in Rajshahi to −0.123°C per 10 mm in Lalmonirhat. These findings demonstrate that satellite-derived hydrothermal responses are spatially heterogeneous and highlight the value of multi-sensor Earth observation frameworks for identifying location-specific climate adaptation priorities.

Published in	American Journal of Remote Sensing (Volume 14, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
Page(s)	118-133
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Land-Surface Temperature, Precipitation, Distributed-Lag Model, NDVI, MODIS, CHIRPS, Bangladesh, Compound Dry-Hot Events

References

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Muntakim, N., Hossain, M. I., Ahmed, Z., Rahman, M. M. (2026). Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. American Journal of Remote Sensing, 14(2), 118-133. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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ACS Style

Muntakim, N.; Hossain, M. I.; Ahmed, Z.; Rahman, M. M. Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. Am. J. Remote Sens. 2026, 14(2), 118-133. doi: 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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AMA Style

Muntakim N, Hossain MI, Ahmed Z, Rahman MM. Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. Am J Remote Sens. 2026;14(2):118-133. doi: 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17,
  author = {Nafia Muntakim and Md. Imran Hossain and Zihad Ahmed and Md. Mizanoor Rahman},
  title = {Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: 
A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis},
  journal = {American Journal of Remote Sensing},
  volume = {14},
  number = {2},
  pages = {118-133},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  abstract = {Understanding how rainfall variability regulates land-surface thermal conditions is essential for climate-sensitive regions where water availability, vegetation dynamics, and heat stress interact. However, the temporal persistence and spatial heterogeneity of rainfall–surface temperature relationships remain insufficiently characterized in northwestern Bangladesh. This study integrates 25 years (2001–2025) of multi-source Earth observation data, including Terra MODIS land-surface temperature (MOD11A2), MODIS vegetation index (MOD13A2), and CHIRPS precipitation, to quantify pre-monsoon hydrothermal coupling across 16 districts of the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. A total of 275 quality-controlled 8-day March–May composites were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimation, fixed-effects distributed lag models, and a locally standardized compound dry-hot persistence indicator. Mean daytime land-surface temperature ranged from 27.93°C in Kurigram to 31.38°C in Chapai Nawabganj. No district exhibited a significant daytime land-surface temperature trend after false-discovery-rate correction, whereas NDVI increased significantly across all districts. The distributed-lag model showed that 10 mm of concurrent rainfall was associated with a 0.164°C lower daytime land-surface temperature (95% CI: −0.224 to −0.103°C), while rainfall during the preceding 8–16 days was associated with a weaker effect (−0.093°C per 10 mm). The 16–24-day rainfall effect was not significant. Rainfall sensitivity varied considerably among districts, ranging from −0.538°C per 10 mm in Rajshahi to −0.123°C per 10 mm in Lalmonirhat. These findings demonstrate that satellite-derived hydrothermal responses are spatially heterogeneous and highlight the value of multi-sensor Earth observation frameworks for identifying location-specific climate adaptation priorities.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: 
A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis
AU  - Nafia Muntakim
AU  - Md. Imran Hossain
AU  - Zihad Ahmed
AU  - Md. Mizanoor Rahman
Y1  - 2026/09/28
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N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
T2  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
JF  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
JO  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
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PB  - Science Publishing Group
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AB  - Understanding how rainfall variability regulates land-surface thermal conditions is essential for climate-sensitive regions where water availability, vegetation dynamics, and heat stress interact. However, the temporal persistence and spatial heterogeneity of rainfall–surface temperature relationships remain insufficiently characterized in northwestern Bangladesh. This study integrates 25 years (2001–2025) of multi-source Earth observation data, including Terra MODIS land-surface temperature (MOD11A2), MODIS vegetation index (MOD13A2), and CHIRPS precipitation, to quantify pre-monsoon hydrothermal coupling across 16 districts of the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. A total of 275 quality-controlled 8-day March–May composites were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimation, fixed-effects distributed lag models, and a locally standardized compound dry-hot persistence indicator. Mean daytime land-surface temperature ranged from 27.93°C in Kurigram to 31.38°C in Chapai Nawabganj. No district exhibited a significant daytime land-surface temperature trend after false-discovery-rate correction, whereas NDVI increased significantly across all districts. The distributed-lag model showed that 10 mm of concurrent rainfall was associated with a 0.164°C lower daytime land-surface temperature (95% CI: −0.224 to −0.103°C), while rainfall during the preceding 8–16 days was associated with a weaker effect (−0.093°C per 10 mm). The 16–24-day rainfall effect was not significant. Rainfall sensitivity varied considerably among districts, ranging from −0.538°C per 10 mm in Rajshahi to −0.123°C per 10 mm in Lalmonirhat. These findings demonstrate that satellite-derived hydrothermal responses are spatially heterogeneous and highlight the value of multi-sensor Earth observation frameworks for identifying location-specific climate adaptation priorities.
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Nafia Muntakim

Institute of Environmental Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

http://orcid.org/0009-0006-0428-5383
Md. Imran Hossain

Institute of Environmental Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

http://orcid.org/0009-0004-6856-9276
Zihad Ahmed

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5657-6258
Md. Mizanoor Rahman

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2049-9246

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APA Style

Muntakim, N., Hossain, M. I., Ahmed, Z., Rahman, M. M. (2026). Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. American Journal of Remote Sensing, 14(2), 118-133. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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ACS Style

Muntakim, N.; Hossain, M. I.; Ahmed, Z.; Rahman, M. M. Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. Am. J. Remote Sens. 2026, 14(2), 118-133. doi: 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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AMA Style

Muntakim N, Hossain MI, Ahmed Z, Rahman MM. Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis. Am J Remote Sens. 2026;14(2):118-133. doi: 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17,
  author = {Nafia Muntakim and Md. Imran Hossain and Zihad Ahmed and Md. Mizanoor Rahman},
  title = {Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: 
A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis},
  journal = {American Journal of Remote Sensing},
  volume = {14},
  number = {2},
  pages = {118-133},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajrs.20261402.17},
  abstract = {Understanding how rainfall variability regulates land-surface thermal conditions is essential for climate-sensitive regions where water availability, vegetation dynamics, and heat stress interact. However, the temporal persistence and spatial heterogeneity of rainfall–surface temperature relationships remain insufficiently characterized in northwestern Bangladesh. This study integrates 25 years (2001–2025) of multi-source Earth observation data, including Terra MODIS land-surface temperature (MOD11A2), MODIS vegetation index (MOD13A2), and CHIRPS precipitation, to quantify pre-monsoon hydrothermal coupling across 16 districts of the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. A total of 275 quality-controlled 8-day March–May composites were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimation, fixed-effects distributed lag models, and a locally standardized compound dry-hot persistence indicator. Mean daytime land-surface temperature ranged from 27.93°C in Kurigram to 31.38°C in Chapai Nawabganj. No district exhibited a significant daytime land-surface temperature trend after false-discovery-rate correction, whereas NDVI increased significantly across all districts. The distributed-lag model showed that 10 mm of concurrent rainfall was associated with a 0.164°C lower daytime land-surface temperature (95% CI: −0.224 to −0.103°C), while rainfall during the preceding 8–16 days was associated with a weaker effect (−0.093°C per 10 mm). The 16–24-day rainfall effect was not significant. Rainfall sensitivity varied considerably among districts, ranging from −0.538°C per 10 mm in Rajshahi to −0.123°C per 10 mm in Lalmonirhat. These findings demonstrate that satellite-derived hydrothermal responses are spatially heterogeneous and highlight the value of multi-sensor Earth observation frameworks for identifying location-specific climate adaptation priorities.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Rainfall–Surface Temperature Coupling and Compound Dry-Hot Persistence Across Northwestern Bangladesh: 
A 25-Year Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Analysis
AU  - Nafia Muntakim
AU  - Md. Imran Hossain
AU  - Zihad Ahmed
AU  - Md. Mizanoor Rahman
Y1  - 2026/09/28
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
T2  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
JF  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
JO  - American Journal of Remote Sensing
SP  - 118
EP  - 133
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-580X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajrs.20261402.17
AB  - Understanding how rainfall variability regulates land-surface thermal conditions is essential for climate-sensitive regions where water availability, vegetation dynamics, and heat stress interact. However, the temporal persistence and spatial heterogeneity of rainfall–surface temperature relationships remain insufficiently characterized in northwestern Bangladesh. This study integrates 25 years (2001–2025) of multi-source Earth observation data, including Terra MODIS land-surface temperature (MOD11A2), MODIS vegetation index (MOD13A2), and CHIRPS precipitation, to quantify pre-monsoon hydrothermal coupling across 16 districts of the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. A total of 275 quality-controlled 8-day March–May composites were analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimation, fixed-effects distributed lag models, and a locally standardized compound dry-hot persistence indicator. Mean daytime land-surface temperature ranged from 27.93°C in Kurigram to 31.38°C in Chapai Nawabganj. No district exhibited a significant daytime land-surface temperature trend after false-discovery-rate correction, whereas NDVI increased significantly across all districts. The distributed-lag model showed that 10 mm of concurrent rainfall was associated with a 0.164°C lower daytime land-surface temperature (95% CI: −0.224 to −0.103°C), while rainfall during the preceding 8–16 days was associated with a weaker effect (−0.093°C per 10 mm). The 16–24-day rainfall effect was not significant. Rainfall sensitivity varied considerably among districts, ranging from −0.538°C per 10 mm in Rajshahi to −0.123°C per 10 mm in Lalmonirhat. These findings demonstrate that satellite-derived hydrothermal responses are spatially heterogeneous and highlight the value of multi-sensor Earth observation frameworks for identifying location-specific climate adaptation priorities.
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
ER  -

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