Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years

Jian Yong-mei

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years

Jian Yong-mei^*

Published in International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 6)

Received: 2 December 2025 Accepted: 12 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025

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Abstract

Changji City is located in the main producing area of winter wheat in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study and analyze the regional climate change and its impact on the overwintering period of winter wheat for making full use of the ratio of light, heat and water resources and developing grain production according to local conditions. The data of national meteorological station and the observation data of winter wheat development period in Changji City from 1995 to 2024 were selected. The linear regression equation, climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥0°C accumulated temperature and other climatic factors during the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, and to judge the key climatic factors affecting the overwintering period of winter wheat. The results showed that: (1) During the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature all showed a significant downward trend, and the downward rates were 1.3, 0.5 and 2.2°C/10a, respectively. The downward trend of precipitation was not significant, and the changes of sunshine hours and ≥0°C accumulated temperature were not obvious; (2) There was a strong negative correlation between the number of winter wheat overwintering days and the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and ≥0°C accumulated temperature. (3) In recent 30 years, the number of winter wheat overwintering days in Changji City showed an increasing trend, which was related to the significant decrease of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.

Published in	International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
Page(s)	232-238
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Changji City, Winter Wheat, Overwintering Period, Climate Change, Impact

References

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[2]	JIAN Yong-mei, LI Jian-gang, FANG Wen. Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Main Flood Season of Changji Oasis from 1971 to 2020 [J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2024, 18(4): 23-29. https://doi.org/10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2024.04.004
[3]	Changji Municipal People 's Government. Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and S-ocial Development of Changji City in 2023 [EB/OL]. https://www.cjs.gov.cn/gk/lan/931607.htm,2024-06-04/2024-07-26
[4]	LEI Jun-jei, CHENG Xing-wu, ZHAO Qi, et al. High-yielding cultivation techniques of winter wheat in northern Xinjiang [J]. Rural Science & Technology, 2014(2): 5-6.
[5]	JING Yi-gang, FAN Jian-zhong, GAO Mao-sheng. Influences of the Climate Warming on Developm-ental Stages of Winter Wheat in Shanxi [J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2013, 33(2): 389-396.
[6]	LI Tong-xiao, ZHAO Guo-qiang, LI You. Climate Chang and its Impacts on During of Winter Wh-eat Overwintering Stage in Henan Province [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2009, 30(1): 143-146.
[7]	HU Xin-yu, WANG Jing, FENG Li-ping. Analysis on Agro-climeatic Elements Variation during Winter Wheat Growing Season in North China Plain [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(3): 317-323.
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[9]	WU Yanfeng, BAKE Batur, LU0 Nana, et al. Variations in Water Requirement of Winter Wheat at Different Growth StagesandIts Climatic Causein Shihezi Region [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016, 32(1): 69-74. https://doi.org/10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.01.013
[10]	MAQian-qian. Analysis of Winter Wheat Phenology Evolution in Northern China Wheat Zone u-nder Global Warming [J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2021, 41(6): 762-770.
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[12]	Li L J, Zhang Lu, Wang Hao, et al. Assessing the impact of climate varialility and humanactivities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China [J]. Hydrological Processe-s, 2007, 21(25): 3485-3491.
[13]	Abudoulerimu Abasi, Patima Bbudouaini, Wang Rongmei. et al. Variation Characteristics and I-mpact of Climate Factors During Winter Wheat Growth in Kashgar, Xinjiang [J]. Chinese Agr-icultural Science Bulletin, 2016, 32(27): 34-41.
[14]	MA Zhao-ting, WANG Ru-bing. Autumn sowing and precautions of winter wheat in northern Xinjiang [J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Science and Technology, 2021(6): 30. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1007-3574.2021.06.015
[15]	JIANG Shu-hua. Construction of winter wheat cultivation and management technology framew-ork [J]. Agricultural Development and Equipmen, 2021(8): 217-218.
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APA Style

Yong-mei, J. (2025). Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences, 11(6), 232-238. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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ACS Style

Yong-mei, J. Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. Int. J. Appl. Agric. Sci. 2025, 11(6), 232-238. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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AMA Style

Yong-mei J. Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. Int J Appl Agric Sci. 2025;11(6):232-238. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13,
  author = {Jian Yong-mei},
  title = {Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years},
  journal = {International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {6},
  pages = {232-238},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  abstract = {Changji City is located in the main producing area of winter wheat in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study and analyze the regional climate change and its impact on the overwintering period of winter wheat for making full use of the ratio of light, heat and water resources and developing grain production according to local conditions. The data of national meteorological station and the observation data of winter wheat development period in Changji City from 1995 to 2024 were selected. The linear regression equation, climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥0°C accumulated temperature and other climatic factors during the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, and to judge the key climatic factors affecting the overwintering period of winter wheat. The results showed that: (1) During the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature all showed a significant downward trend, and the downward rates were 1.3, 0.5 and 2.2°C/10a, respectively. The downward trend of precipitation was not significant, and the changes of sunshine hours and ≥0°C accumulated temperature were not obvious; (2) There was a strong negative correlation between the number of winter wheat overwintering days and the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and ≥0°C accumulated temperature. (3) In recent 30 years, the number of winter wheat overwintering days in Changji City showed an increasing trend, which was related to the significant decrease of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years
AU  - Jian Yong-mei
Y1  - 2025/12/29
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
T2  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
SP  - 232
EP  - 238
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2469-7885
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
AB  - Changji City is located in the main producing area of winter wheat in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study and analyze the regional climate change and its impact on the overwintering period of winter wheat for making full use of the ratio of light, heat and water resources and developing grain production according to local conditions. The data of national meteorological station and the observation data of winter wheat development period in Changji City from 1995 to 2024 were selected. The linear regression equation, climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥0°C accumulated temperature and other climatic factors during the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, and to judge the key climatic factors affecting the overwintering period of winter wheat. The results showed that: (1) During the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature all showed a significant downward trend, and the downward rates were 1.3, 0.5 and 2.2°C/10a, respectively. The downward trend of precipitation was not significant, and the changes of sunshine hours and ≥0°C accumulated temperature were not obvious; (2) There was a strong negative correlation between the number of winter wheat overwintering days and the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and ≥0°C accumulated temperature. (3) In recent 30 years, the number of winter wheat overwintering days in Changji City showed an increasing trend, which was related to the significant decrease of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.
VL  - 11
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Jian Yong-mei

Changji Meteorological Bureau, Changji, China

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0007-0882-306X

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APA Style

Yong-mei, J. (2025). Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences, 11(6), 232-238. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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ACS Style

Yong-mei, J. Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. Int. J. Appl. Agric. Sci. 2025, 11(6), 232-238. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

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AMA Style

Yong-mei J. Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years. Int J Appl Agric Sci. 2025;11(6):232-238. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13,
  author = {Jian Yong-mei},
  title = {Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years},
  journal = {International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {6},
  pages = {232-238},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaas.20251106.13},
  abstract = {Changji City is located in the main producing area of winter wheat in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study and analyze the regional climate change and its impact on the overwintering period of winter wheat for making full use of the ratio of light, heat and water resources and developing grain production according to local conditions. The data of national meteorological station and the observation data of winter wheat development period in Changji City from 1995 to 2024 were selected. The linear regression equation, climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥0°C accumulated temperature and other climatic factors during the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, and to judge the key climatic factors affecting the overwintering period of winter wheat. The results showed that: (1) During the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature all showed a significant downward trend, and the downward rates were 1.3, 0.5 and 2.2°C/10a, respectively. The downward trend of precipitation was not significant, and the changes of sunshine hours and ≥0°C accumulated temperature were not obvious; (2) There was a strong negative correlation between the number of winter wheat overwintering days and the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and ≥0°C accumulated temperature. (3) In recent 30 years, the number of winter wheat overwintering days in Changji City showed an increasing trend, which was related to the significant decrease of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate Change and Impact Analysis of Winter Wheat Overwintering Period in Changji City in Recent 30 Years
AU  - Jian Yong-mei
Y1  - 2025/12/29
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
T2  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Applied Agricultural Sciences
SP  - 232
EP  - 238
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2469-7885
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaas.20251106.13
AB  - Changji City is located in the main producing area of winter wheat in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study and analyze the regional climate change and its impact on the overwintering period of winter wheat for making full use of the ratio of light, heat and water resources and developing grain production according to local conditions. The data of national meteorological station and the observation data of winter wheat development period in Changji City from 1995 to 2024 were selected. The linear regression equation, climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ≥0°C accumulated temperature and other climatic factors during the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, and to judge the key climatic factors affecting the overwintering period of winter wheat. The results showed that: (1) During the overwintering period of winter wheat in Changji City, the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature all showed a significant downward trend, and the downward rates were 1.3, 0.5 and 2.2°C/10a, respectively. The downward trend of precipitation was not significant, and the changes of sunshine hours and ≥0°C accumulated temperature were not obvious; (2) There was a strong negative correlation between the number of winter wheat overwintering days and the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and ≥0°C accumulated temperature. (3) In recent 30 years, the number of winter wheat overwintering days in Changji City showed an increasing trend, which was related to the significant decrease of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.
VL  - 11
IS  - 6
ER  -

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