A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria

Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel; Sunday Onos Edeki

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria

Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel

, Sunday Onos Edeki^*

Published in International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics (Volume 11, Issue 2)

Received: 10 March 2026 Accepted: 27 March 2026 Published: 7 May 2026

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Abstract

Climate change has worsened the spread of infectious diseases across the tropics, especially in Southern Nigeria, where fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and flood aid the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases. These environmental disruptions raise levels of morbidity and cost the health and community sectors heavily. The counteractions against these disruptions, hence, demand an inclusive strategy of public health interventions, linked with adaptive climate finance mechanisms. In this study, a stochastic climate–finance SEIR model is developed to investigate the dynamic interaction between infectious disease transmission, climate variability, and financial intervention policies. This work sets the stage for studying the stochastic investment SEIR model intact, which is a representative model to study the complex intrinsic relationship involving climate variability, financial interventions, and the transmission of infectious diseases. A thorough analysis, seasoned with the global existence and uniqueness, ruled positivity and boundedness of the system, and stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were performed using Lyapunov techniques and Itô calculus. Following a careful investigation process made in this study, a stochastic reproduction number was derived, showing how noise affects epidemic thresholds. Numerical simulations were also performed to further show the impact of climate variability and financial responsiveness on epidemic trajectories. The numerical results showed that adaptive management of climate change and climate finance diminished the highest magnitudes of infections while compressing the time needed for epidemics to spiral all out of control in the presence of effectively and tactically employed environmental forcing. The outcome serves as the creation of a structural definition within mathematics, with the sole aim of enabling robust climate-health financing towards the mitigation of infectious disease risks in Southern Nigeria.

Published in	International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics (Volume 11, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
Page(s)	24-31
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Stochastic Epidemiological Model, Climate Finance, Seir Model, Stochastic Differential Equations, Climate-Induced Diseases, Southern Nigeria

References

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APA Style

Ezekiel, I. D., Edeki, S. O. (2026). A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics, 11(2), 24-31. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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ACS Style

Ezekiel, I. D.; Edeki, S. O. A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. Int. J. Syst. Sci. Appl. Math. 2026, 11(2), 24-31. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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AMA Style

Ezekiel ID, Edeki SO. A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. Int J Syst Sci Appl Math. 2026;11(2):24-31. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11,
  author = {Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel and Sunday Onos Edeki},
  title = {A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria
},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {24-31},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  abstract = {Climate change has worsened the spread of infectious diseases across the tropics, especially in Southern Nigeria, where fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and flood aid the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases. These environmental disruptions raise levels of morbidity and cost the health and community sectors heavily. The counteractions against these disruptions, hence, demand an inclusive strategy of public health interventions, linked with adaptive climate finance mechanisms. In this study, a stochastic climate–finance SEIR model is developed to investigate the dynamic interaction between infectious disease transmission, climate variability, and financial intervention policies. This work sets the stage for studying the stochastic investment SEIR model intact, which is a representative model to study the complex intrinsic relationship involving climate variability, financial interventions, and the transmission of infectious diseases. A thorough analysis, seasoned with the global existence and uniqueness, ruled positivity and boundedness of the system, and stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were performed using Lyapunov techniques and Itô calculus. Following a careful investigation process made in this study, a stochastic reproduction number was derived, showing how noise affects epidemic thresholds. Numerical simulations were also performed to further show the impact of climate variability and financial responsiveness on epidemic trajectories. The numerical results showed that adaptive management of climate change and climate finance diminished the highest magnitudes of infections while compressing the time needed for epidemics to spiral all out of control in the presence of effectively and tactically employed environmental forcing. The outcome serves as the creation of a structural definition within mathematics, with the sole aim of enabling robust climate-health financing towards the mitigation of infectious disease risks in Southern Nigeria.
},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria

AU  - Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel
AU  - Sunday Onos Edeki
Y1  - 2026/05/07
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
T2  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 24
EP  - 31
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5803
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
AB  - Climate change has worsened the spread of infectious diseases across the tropics, especially in Southern Nigeria, where fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and flood aid the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases. These environmental disruptions raise levels of morbidity and cost the health and community sectors heavily. The counteractions against these disruptions, hence, demand an inclusive strategy of public health interventions, linked with adaptive climate finance mechanisms. In this study, a stochastic climate–finance SEIR model is developed to investigate the dynamic interaction between infectious disease transmission, climate variability, and financial intervention policies. This work sets the stage for studying the stochastic investment SEIR model intact, which is a representative model to study the complex intrinsic relationship involving climate variability, financial interventions, and the transmission of infectious diseases. A thorough analysis, seasoned with the global existence and uniqueness, ruled positivity and boundedness of the system, and stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were performed using Lyapunov techniques and Itô calculus. Following a careful investigation process made in this study, a stochastic reproduction number was derived, showing how noise affects epidemic thresholds. Numerical simulations were also performed to further show the impact of climate variability and financial responsiveness on epidemic trajectories. The numerical results showed that adaptive management of climate change and climate finance diminished the highest magnitudes of infections while compressing the time needed for epidemics to spiral all out of control in the presence of effectively and tactically employed environmental forcing. The outcome serves as the creation of a structural definition within mathematics, with the sole aim of enabling robust climate-health financing towards the mitigation of infectious disease risks in Southern Nigeria.

VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Ilaro, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0003-7136-1057
Sunday Onos Edeki

Department of Mathematics, Dennis Osadebay University, Asaba, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7921-3492

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APA Style

Ezekiel, I. D., Edeki, S. O. (2026). A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics, 11(2), 24-31. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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ACS Style

Ezekiel, I. D.; Edeki, S. O. A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. Int. J. Syst. Sci. Appl. Math. 2026, 11(2), 24-31. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

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AMA Style

Ezekiel ID, Edeki SO. A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria. Int J Syst Sci Appl Math. 2026;11(2):24-31. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11,
  author = {Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel and Sunday Onos Edeki},
  title = {A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria
},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {24-31},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijssam.20261102.11},
  abstract = {Climate change has worsened the spread of infectious diseases across the tropics, especially in Southern Nigeria, where fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and flood aid the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases. These environmental disruptions raise levels of morbidity and cost the health and community sectors heavily. The counteractions against these disruptions, hence, demand an inclusive strategy of public health interventions, linked with adaptive climate finance mechanisms. In this study, a stochastic climate–finance SEIR model is developed to investigate the dynamic interaction between infectious disease transmission, climate variability, and financial intervention policies. This work sets the stage for studying the stochastic investment SEIR model intact, which is a representative model to study the complex intrinsic relationship involving climate variability, financial interventions, and the transmission of infectious diseases. A thorough analysis, seasoned with the global existence and uniqueness, ruled positivity and boundedness of the system, and stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were performed using Lyapunov techniques and Itô calculus. Following a careful investigation process made in this study, a stochastic reproduction number was derived, showing how noise affects epidemic thresholds. Numerical simulations were also performed to further show the impact of climate variability and financial responsiveness on epidemic trajectories. The numerical results showed that adaptive management of climate change and climate finance diminished the highest magnitudes of infections while compressing the time needed for epidemics to spiral all out of control in the presence of effectively and tactically employed environmental forcing. The outcome serves as the creation of a structural definition within mathematics, with the sole aim of enabling robust climate-health financing towards the mitigation of infectious disease risks in Southern Nigeria.
},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - A Remark on Stochastic Climate-Finance SEIR Model for Climate-Induced Infectious Diseases in Southern Nigeria

AU  - Imekela Donaldson Ezekiel
AU  - Sunday Onos Edeki
Y1  - 2026/05/07
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
T2  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 24
EP  - 31
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5803
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261102.11
AB  - Climate change has worsened the spread of infectious diseases across the tropics, especially in Southern Nigeria, where fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and flood aid the spread of vector-borne and waterborne diseases. These environmental disruptions raise levels of morbidity and cost the health and community sectors heavily. The counteractions against these disruptions, hence, demand an inclusive strategy of public health interventions, linked with adaptive climate finance mechanisms. In this study, a stochastic climate–finance SEIR model is developed to investigate the dynamic interaction between infectious disease transmission, climate variability, and financial intervention policies. This work sets the stage for studying the stochastic investment SEIR model intact, which is a representative model to study the complex intrinsic relationship involving climate variability, financial interventions, and the transmission of infectious diseases. A thorough analysis, seasoned with the global existence and uniqueness, ruled positivity and boundedness of the system, and stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium were performed using Lyapunov techniques and Itô calculus. Following a careful investigation process made in this study, a stochastic reproduction number was derived, showing how noise affects epidemic thresholds. Numerical simulations were also performed to further show the impact of climate variability and financial responsiveness on epidemic trajectories. The numerical results showed that adaptive management of climate change and climate finance diminished the highest magnitudes of infections while compressing the time needed for epidemics to spiral all out of control in the presence of effectively and tactically employed environmental forcing. The outcome serves as the creation of a structural definition within mathematics, with the sole aim of enabling robust climate-health financing towards the mitigation of infectious disease risks in Southern Nigeria.

VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download