Research Article
Capital Flight and Growth of Nigeria’s Economy (1980-2023): An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modelling
Oluwafemi Benjamin Adeyemi Amos*
,
Sumaila Adavani Joseph Obansa
Issue:
Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
29-40
Received:
30 October 2025
Accepted:
14 November 2025
Published:
23 April 2026
Abstract: This study investigated the impact of capital flight on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1980 to 2023. Preliminary analyses, revealed that variables were stationary at level and first difference, I(0) and I(1), respectively. Given the data characteristics, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied. The results from the ARDL model confirmed a significant long-run relationship between capital flight and economic growth, indicating an inverse relationship in both the short and long run. Specifically, external debt exerted a negative effect on growth in the short run (-0.94) but turned positive in the long run (-0.86). Insecurity, with coefficients (-1.06) and (-4.76), had a consistently negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth in both the short and long run. Similarly, the exchange rate negatively influenced growth in the short run (-0.02) but showed a positive long-run relationship (0.002). The current account balance, on the other hand, had a positive effect on economic growth in both the short run (0.0024) and the long run (0.0003). The Error Correction Model (ECM) reparameterization of the ARDL framework indicated a speed of adjustment of 95%, which was statistically significant and correctly signed, suggesting a strong tendency toward long-run equilibrium. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the Federal Government of Nigeria adopt comprehensive measures to curb the drivers of capital flight—such as macroeconomic instability, institutional weaknesses, and external incentives—through sound economic policies, political stability, and institutional strengthening. Furthermore, the government should intensify efforts to combat insecurity by equipping security agencies with modern technology and incentives, ensuring effective protection of lives, property, and the overall social, political, and economic development of the nation.
Abstract: This study investigated the impact of capital flight on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1980 to 2023. Preliminary analyses, revealed that variables were stationary at level and first difference, I(0) and I(1), respectively. Given the data characteristics, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied....
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Research Article
How Local Government Spending on S&T Influences AI Development
Jihan Liu,
Doudou Zhu*
Issue:
Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
41-48
Received:
24 March 2026
Accepted:
17 April 2026
Published:
30 April 2026
Abstract: This paper examines whether local fiscal expenditure on science and technology (S&T) promotes regional artificial intelligence (AI) development in China. A main empirical challenge is the lack of consistent city-level measures of AI activity. To address this issue, the paper constructs a city-level AI indicator by identifying AI-related firms from business scope descriptions using TF–IDF text mining and aggregating firm counts for prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023. Using panel data for Chinese prefecture-level cities, the analysis first estimates the relationship between the local S&T spending share and AI development within a two-way fixed effects framework. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, the paper further employs an instrumental-variable strategy. The results show that a higher local S&T spending share is significantly associated with stronger AI development. In economic terms, a one-percentage-point increase in the S&T spending share is associated with an approximately 1.09% increase in the AI indicator. The main finding remains robust across alternative specifications and IV estimation. The paper also explores heterogeneity across cities with different initial AI endowments. The positive effect of local S&T spending is stronger in cities with higher baseline AI levels and weaker in lower-endowment cities. These results suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal S&T support depends on local initial conditions. Overall, the paper provides a replicable city-level measure of AI development and new evidence on the role of local public S&T expenditure in shaping regional AI development.
Abstract: This paper examines whether local fiscal expenditure on science and technology (S&T) promotes regional artificial intelligence (AI) development in China. A main empirical challenge is the lack of consistent city-level measures of AI activity. To address this issue, the paper constructs a city-level AI indicator by identifying AI-related firms from ...
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Research Article
Impact of Social Protection on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution in Nigeria: A Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Approach
Issue:
Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
49-57
Received:
6 May 2026
Accepted:
20 May 2026
Published:
4 June 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.eco.20261502.13
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Abstract: Social protection has emerged as a crucial instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality in many low- and middle-income countries across the world. In Nigeria, several social protection programmes and interventions have been introduced and implemented over the last decade with the aim of improving the welfare of vulnerable households, promoting inclusive growth, and addressing rising levels of poverty and inequality. Despite these efforts, there are increasing indications that such investments have not produced the expected or desired reductions in poverty and income disparities. This suggests that social protection investments may not have been sufficiently effective in addressing the structural causes of poverty and inequality in the country. Against this background, this paper assesses the impact of social protection on poverty and income distribution in Nigeria by taking into account the general equilibrium effects associated with at-scale financing mechanisms. The study adopts a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model calibrated with a combined dataset comprising the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria and the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016. Findings from the study reveal that social protection investments can contribute significantly to reductions in poverty and income inequality under favourable economic and policy conditions. In particular, the foreign aid financing channel was found to be the most effective in reducing poverty. The paper therefore emphasizes the importance of strengthening North–South collaborations in the design, implementation, and financing of anti-poverty social protection programmes in line with Sustainable Development Goal 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
Abstract: Social protection has emerged as a crucial instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality in many low- and middle-income countries across the world. In Nigeria, several social protection programmes and interventions have been introduced and implemented over the last decade with the aim of improving the welfare of vulnerable households, promo...
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